Editorial: No winners in potential MLS lockout

--------------------"I wonder if Portsmouth got my resume?"

In just under two weeks from now, there is a good possibility that Major League Soccer and its clubs will formally lockout their players. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on January 31st and without a new deal, the ownership and league will likely take the lockout route. While negotiations between MLS and the players' union have been ongoing there has been little in the way of positive news. If the inevitable does become reality, all sides would end up injured - possibly very badly.

The ownership and the league are practically one entity within MLS and are bargaining from the same side. Despite many advances in the last decade, the majority of MLS clubs are still operating at a loss. The individual owners thus would like to see the continuation of very strict control over player wages in order to preserve what they see as the only route to their financial stability. Preserving the status quo would likely please most of the clubs for now.

However, an extended lockout into the regular season could completely blow up in the clubs' faces and the effects could be fatal for more than a few teams. Outside of Toronto, Seattle and DC it is fair to say that the average MLS stadium is only full with about 30% of ardent, die-hard supporters. The rest of the crowd are your casual, suburban "soccer-mom" crowd who will quickly forget that their local club exists. If the long established, traditional American Major League Baseball took an attendance hit after their lockout, you can imagine how the 5th place professional league would suffer. In addition, newcomers Philadelphia Union and the revamped New York Red Bulls (with their new park) may see their massive investments and any momentum lost for good.

On the other side of the table, the players are fighting to gain some respectability and clout especially in the areas of wages and control over their movement within MLS. The league's players for the most part are not making a fair wage in comparison with their International counterparts and their restricted movement due to the league's single entity ownership is definitely unfair but is a remaining after-effect of the league's fear of an NASL spend-crazy meltdown. There is definitely wiggle room in this area but since FIFA officials decided to stay out of the league's labour affairs, the player's union doesn't seem to have much in the way of support.

The stars of the league have much less to worry about in the event of a season disruption. Their wages are somewhat in line with what they could make elsewhere and the DP situation seems to be working, if not a little under utilized. However, the majority of the players deserve more money and an increase to the league's salary cap would help. Sadly for about 60 - 70% of the players, there are few options for them in other leagues and MLS knows this and will bargain against it. The point where some of the league's "star" players may get their noses out of joint is when their lack of play starts to affect their chances of being picked to go this summer's World Cup.

That very World Cup in South Africa is one of the biggest potential missed opportunities for MLS in the event of a lockout. Whenever the World Cup is played, interest in the game soars briefly in the USA. It is a once every four years chance for MLS to capitalize on "soccer fever" - missing 2010 puts the league way back for the next half decade. Even if there is a short lockout, the league's plans to halt play during the World Cup may have to be ditched in order to make-up lost time on the schedule. MLS must think hard whether this opportunity and the other momentum the league had managed to create is worth the risk to continuing the status quo financial growth of the league. Finding this balance is Don Garber's biggest challenge as MLS Commissioner.

There is a fear in some circles that MLS and the players are getting too big for their britches in seeing themselves as a "major league" in comparison to the NFL, NBA or MLB. Make no mistake, as much as supporters love the league, it is not on par with those established leagues and a serious lockout could be a major blow - if not a fatal one. MLS has been North America's best run football league and has provided the continent's fans their best shot at a "real" football league. After so much groundwork it would be horrible to have to see a new league rise from its ashes - likely run by more Nike-esque "soccer clowns". Unless the English Premier League is looking to do a reverse World League of American Football with an EPL USA, football supporters in North America should hope that cooler heads prevail. And sooner.... rather than later.